Many people tend to avoid the subjects of Global Warming and Peak Oil since the possibilities of the end results are difficult to fathom; however, it is vital that we know about the eventualities that will occur as a direct result of these continued activities. I’ve collected factual information on both of these linked subjects from various sources in order to get an overview of what both of these things are, how they will affect the planet, and have presented them below.
“I’d put my money on the Sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” -Thomas Edison (late 1800s)
Global Warming
At risk are the health of the global economy, of human individuals and communities, and of the ecosystems upon which we depend for food, clean water, other resources. Humanity may have only a narrow window of time left, perhaps a decade or so, to begin the long process of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that can avert devastating and irreversible impacts from climate change.
Looking at the available data, global warming has increased the intensity of precipitation events over recent decades. From 1998 to 2002, below normal precipitation and high temperatures have resulted in droughts covering wide swaths of North America, southern Europe, and southern and central Asia. Human-caused global warming may have already doubled the chance of “killer” heat waves like the one that hit Europe in July and August of 2003. That summer was very likely the continent’s hottest in 500 years. The relentless heat killed at least 27,000 people, breaking all records worldwide for heat-induced human fatalities.
Of over 1,400 species that have been analyzed, ranging from fish and mammals to grasses and trees, over 80% are migrating to higher latitudes or higher elevations and altering their annual routines in response to global warming. Over time, this could cause disruptive ecological and economic changes, such as the disappearance of entire fisheries and a change in areas of the current ecological structure.
The past 25 years have witnessed a higher incidence around the world of large-scale coral “bleaching” events, which can lead to coral death. In 1997 to 1998 alone, the largest bleaching event on record seriously damaged 16% of the reefs in the world and killed 1,000-year old corals. Mass bleaching is usually caused by excessively high temperatures. Scientists therefore attribute the increase in bleaching events to the rise in average surface ocean temperatures in many tropical regions by almost 2°F (1°C) over the past century. Within the next few decades, continued warming could cause mass bleaching to become an annual event, wiping out some reef species and ecosystems along with the food, tourism income, and coastline protection they provide. The oceanic seafood chain itself is at stake since many of these coral areas are natural nurseries for many species of fish. This is not even taking the advent of over-fishing into account.
Higher temperatures accelerate the maturation of disease-causing agents and the organisms that transmit them, specially mosquitoes and rodents. Higher temperatures can also lengthen the season during which mosquitoes are active, as has already been observed in Canada. Warming has also been linked to the recent spread of tropical diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever, into high-altitude areas in Colombia, Mexico, and Rwanda that had never seen the diseases before. The increase in El Niño events since the mid-1970s, a change consistent with global warming model predictions, has also contributed to new outbreaks of disease. In the past decade, heavy rains associated with El Niño events have caused explosive population growth in the rodents that transmit hantavirus, which can lead to severe and often fatal illness in humans. As a consequence, record outbreaks of hantavirus have been occurring in the U.S. as well.
Of over 1,400 species analyzed, ranging from fish and mammals to grasses and trees, over 80% are migrating to higher latitudes or higher elevations and altering their annual routines in response to global warming. In another indication of global warming, springtime events such as migration of birds and butterflies, bird nesting, frog breeding, tree leafing, and flowering are starting an average of 2.3–5.1 days earlier every decade across all observed species. It has been concluded that continued rapid climate change combined with other man-made stresses, such as habitat destruction, could result in numerous disruptive changes to ecosystems, including extinctions. Over time, this could cause disruptive ecological and economic changes.
Sea-level rise is one of the most certain impacts of global warming. During the 20th century, sea levels around the world rose by an average of 4 to 8 inches, ten times the average rate over the last 3,000 years. That rise is projected to continue or accelerate further, with possible catastrophic increases of many meters if the ice sheets on Greenland and/or Antarctica collapse. Already, one-third of the marsh at Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge in the Chesapeake Bay has been submerged under the sea, and the edges of mangrove forests in Bermuda are lined with recently drowned trees. If sea level continues to rise, thousands of square miles of land in densely populated areas such as the eastern U.S. and Bangladesh may be lost, and flooding during storm surges will worsen.
Although individual events or phenomena may not always be easy to link to global warming, the increase in frequency and intensity of such phenomena, and their simultaneous occurrence around the world, provides stronger evidence for such a linkage. Many of the recently observed events have been the worst or unprecedented in 100, 500, 1,000 years or more. This suggests that something highly unusual is happening to our planet. Many of the impacts we have seen so far are likely just “the tip of the iceberg”— scientists predict more dramatic, severe and, in some cases, irreversible impacts if we allow warming to continue unabated in the future. Global warming has wide-ranging effects on many aspects of human life. It threatens economies, lives and traditional ways of life.
Peak Oil
Oil is not just for gasoline, diesel, and the products we normally associate with petroleum products it covers a wide spectrum of products that affect the food supply:
1. Pesticides are made from oil;
2. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas;
3. Farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using fossil fuels.
4. Food storage systems such as refrigerators usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal.
5. Food distribution networks are entirely dependent on oil. Most of the food at your local super market is packaged in plastic, which comes from petroleum. In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,400 miles before it gets to your plate. In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs. Oil-based agriculture is primarily responsible for the world’s population exploding from 1.5 billion at the middle of the 19th century to 6.4 billion at the beginning of the 21st. As oil production went up, so did food production. As food production went up, so did the population. As the population went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil. Put simply, the end of cheap oil means end of oil-powered agriculture, which means the end of cheap food which means the end of billions of lives.
Here is how peak oil will affect the water systems: Fossil fuels are used to construct and maintain aqueducts, dams, sewers, wells, to desalinate brackish water, and to pump the water that comes out of your faucet. Seven percent of the world’s commercial energy consumption is used to deliver fresh water. Most of this energy comes from fossil fuels. Consequently, the cost of fresh water will soar as the cost of oil soars.
Oil is also largely responsible for the advances in medicine that have been made in the last 150 years. Oil allowed for the mass production of pharmaceutical drugs, surgical equipment, and the development of health care infrastructure such as hospitals, ambulances, roads, etc. Consequently, the cost of medical care will soar as the cost of oil soars.
In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics, the manufacturing of computers and communications devices, extraction of key resources such as copper, silver, and platinum, and even the research, development, and construction of alternative energy sources like solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants.
The aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. If you are focusing solely on the price at the pump and/or more fuel efficient forms of transportation, you aren’t seeing the bigger picture. Converting your car to run on bio-diesel won’t do you much good if there isn’t enough energy to maintain roads and highways. Purchasing a hybrid car will seem a bit pointless when you don’t have a job to drive to because the economy has collapsed due to oil depletion. Spending $10,000 to install solar panels on your roof won’t provide you with much comfort when our fossil fuel powered food and water distribution infrastructure has ceased to function. In short, the end of cheap oil means the end of everything you have grown accustomed to, all aspects of industrial civilization, and quite possibly humanity itself. This is known as the post-oil “die-off.” It is estimated the world’s population will contract to less than 500 million within the next 50-100 years as a result of oil depletion (current world population: 6.4 billion).
A population that grows in response to abundant but finite resources tends to exhaust these resources completely. By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. And in its struggle to survive, the last generation uses up every scrap, so that nothing remains that would sustain even a small population. Unfortunately, the parallels between the populations Price refers to and the human populations are impossible to dismiss. Only recently have more than a handful of us realized we don’t have enough oil to last for more than another generation. Even fewer of us have realized none of the alternatives to oil, or combination thereof, can deliver more than a small fraction of the energy required by industrial civilization. If the last 4-5 years are any indicator of what is to come, we will spend the next generation fighting for every last drop of the stuff.
The United States should be all right since we are not a third world country – right? Not by a long shot. In their 1994 article entitled, “Food, Land, Population, and the US Economy,” researchers David Pimentel and Mario Giampetro make the following points:
- The population in the US is increasing at a rate of 1.1 percent per year, not including illegal immigration. At this rate, the US population will reach 520 million by the year 2050.
- As urbanization and soil erosion continue unabated, the US is projected to only have 290 million acres of arable land by 2050. With a population of 520 million, that means each person will only have .6 acres of arable land from which they can derive their food. Agronomists stress, however, that a person needs a minimum of 1.2 acres of arable land for a productive diet.
- Americans currently consume approximately 1,500 gallons of water per day/per person to meet all their needs. (This includes industry, transportation, national defense, food production, etc.,not just the water you drink individually). Hydrologists estimate that a human needs a minimum of 700 gallons of water per day/per person to meet their basic needs. At our current rate of population growth, we will only be able to deliver 700 gallons per day/per person by 2050. That’s just barely enough water for each person.
How does all this tie in with Global Climate Change? Sadly, it now looks as though we will have to deal with the implications of Peak Oil at the same time we finally have to pay the piper in regards to global climate change. In as early as February 2004, the Pentagon released a report on global climate change that was nothing short of horrifying. According to the report, the world may soon delve into atomic anarchy as nations attempt to secure food, water, and energy supplies through nuclear offensives. The report concludes, “An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is plausible and would challenge US national security in ways that should be considered immediately.” In June 2004, the CEO of Shell admitted that the threat of climate change makes him “really very worried for the planet.” When both the Pentagon and the CEO of one of the world’s biggest oil companies both openly admit climate change is an extraordinary threat to humanity, it’s safe to say we’ve got real problems. Unfortunately, the problems associated with global climate change will tend to compound the problems associated with Peak Oil, creating a constantly self-reinforcing loop of crop failure, energy shortages, and economic meltdown. Our ability to sustain the food supply will be greatly diminished as pesticides, fertilizers, and fuel become prohibitively expensive. At the same time, our ability to produce food without these petrochemical inputs will be severely undercut by unpredictable weather patterns.
